Apple
January 25, 2010 11:08 AM PST
Ok, the count down is on. Time to make your predictions. Let's see who can get the closest to the actual thing. This time around I'm trying to restrict my predictions to what I think it will have rather than what I want it to have.
Here is my overly detailed prediction:
[Updated to compare with actual]
Name
There are many possible names floating around, I prefer the 'iPad'. [YES: Ipad it is]
Hardware Predictions
- P.A. Semi dual core, 1Ghz, power efficient chips - ARM based. [Close: 1Ghz A4 (PA Semi). no one knows if it is dual core however]
- 8", 16:9 OLED screen. 1024 x 576 [Close: 9.7" but not widescreen: 1024/768]
- Multi-touch support with patented gestures from Fingerworks acquisition. [NO: new gestures not seen]
- Touch screen does not support pressure sensor. [YES: standard touch]
- Optional pressure sensitive stylus for artists. [NO: nothing announced, maybe 3rd party?]
- Dedicated 3d graphics chip [NO: Integrated with A4 chip]
- .41" thick [Close: .5"]
- 17.5 ounces [NO: 24oz]
- Wi-fi 802.11n [YES]
- NO Cellular modem BUT supports tethering with AT&T iPhone (support announced same day). [NO: Cell options ARE available. AT&T still doesn't offer tethering]
- NO GPS [YES: Correct no GPS]
- NO Compass [NO: There is a compass in the stock]
- Accelerometer [YES:]
- Proximity sensor [NO: Nothing mentioned]
- Ambient light sensor [YES]
- Vibration [NO: Nothing mentioned]
- NO Camera [YES: sans camera]
- Microphone built in. [YES]
- Video Playback 9 hours [Close: claim 10 hours]
- Audio playback 24 hours [?: No one knows]
- Internet use 8 hours on WIFI [Close: claim 10 hours]
- Book reading (WIFI off) 12 hours. [?: No one knows]
- NO home button. Home menu reached with multi-finger gesture. (only volume and power buttons) [NO: There is a home button, as well as mute]
- Stereo speakers [NO: Mono speaker]
- Bluetooth. [YES]
- Headphone jack. [YES]
- New dock connector with HD video output. [?: Maybe - only VGA out announced by programming guide mentions 720p, perhaps with a future dongle?]
- Apple Remote support. [NO: Not mentioned, but maybe though one of the docks?]
- 32GB and 64GB Models initially. [Close: Also announced the budget model with 16G]
- Cost: $799 (32GB model) [NO: pretty far off actually, 499 for 16G and 599 for 32G]
Operating System
- iPhone OS Variant. [YES]
- New UI Framework. [Close: So far there are new elements, but it is a superset of iPhone]
- Supports background apps [NO: :( ]
- Coverflow style task switcher [NO]
- Coverflow style tab switcher for browser [NO]
- Tablet extensions. [YES]
- Handwriting recognition (no stylus required) [NO]
- Predictive full screen keyboard (translusive) for touch typing [Close: Not translusive that I've seen]
- Closed app model. Apps must be installed from Apple's app store. [YES: No surprise here]
- Cannot run iPhone apps at all, must be new apps. [NO: Very surprised by this. I would have figured Apple to want to re-charge you for all those apps]
Built in Applications
- iPaint '10. New painting app. (Apple purchases Art Rage or similar and drops Windows support) [NO: Shame really]
- iPhoto tablet edition. [YES: pretty much the same as on Mac]
- iRead - e reading app optimized for reading digital content with rich embedded multi-media. [YES]
- iWork touch edition. [YES]
- Handwriting app [NO]
- Full screen keyboard. [YES]
- Half screen keyboard. [YES]
- Safari - tablet edition. (NO Flash support) [YES: Again shame on the lack of flash]
- Network printer support - print documents from the device. [NO]
- PDF view and document preview [YES]
- Quicktime [YES]
- Apple shared desktop client [NO]
- Email / photo / etc, same as iPhone [YES: But clean updated versions]
So how did I do? I'll give myself 1/2 point for things that were close. That gives me a computed accuracy of: 50% Better not quit my day job
Comments (8)
Ok for more fun with predictions check out The Unweary Prediction Score Card. Print it out and pass it around the office. Or for even more fun buy the prediction iPhone app.
(Note: shameless plug for my friend's app.)
I don't know if these pics are real or not, but this pretty much what I think it will look like.
I agree with you on pretty much all of this, although I have no idea about the actual measurements. Definitely pa semi and modified iphone os. Hmm, I have a hard time with it not running iPhone apps. I agree that they won't run stock (a small windowed mode would be dumb). But I think the API will be so similar that a UI expansion and re-compile will be an easy port. Also, given Apple's history with "fat binaries", I imagine the SDK will let a single .ipa file to contain both the iPhone and the iPad UI with a common shared back end logic.
BTW, I don't like the name iPad - sounds like something you get at a drugstore for your girlfriend.
I also reaaaallllly hope they surprise and have a camera on front and back. Front for video conferencing and back for augmented reality.
I think they won't announce all the potential of all the apps, like full online application suite integration. They will focus on the media subscriptions and kindle++ aspects of this.
I'm guessing it won't have Don't Panic written in large friendly letters on the cover, which is a shame.
I'm guessing someone will make a cover for it with the words 'Don't panic' on it.
I guess the name iPad is ok. iSlate was too Laura Engles for me, did not convey any sense of modernity.
Updated the post to compare the predictions to actual.
So how do I feel about it? Well I tried to set my bar pretty low, or rather tried to filter out the un-realistic hype that has been on the web. In the end I was still way overly optimistic on things like cool new UI, multi-tasking and handwriting recognition.
There were some positive surprises however, like works with external keyboards including bluetooth, and battery life. Also I was expecting something 200 - 300 more expensive for wifi only. So all in all I think it is pretty cool.
The mood on the web seem pretty negative at the moment. But that is to be expected. No product could live up to the Apple fan boy speculation machine. I think we'll see long lines at the Apple store, yet again, in 2 months.
If I can vpn, remote desktop and use a keyboard and mouse, then I'm in. This would adequately replace my uses for a netbook. The missing camera is a bummer. And would at least one usb port really kill them? I guess an adapter is possible to connect thru the bottom, but if we're talking mobile here then why force users to have more dongles and adapters? I'm still uncomfortable with the size. Seems a tad too big, unless I go everywhere with a messenger bag, no doubt sold by Apple as well.
And if you could put 25 cents in the side and eject a tampon out the bottom, that would be cool too.