Some interesting things happened recently with Apple, and I thought that I'd have a Cringely-like attempt at predicting the future. (Note: I do not have any inside knowledge about any of this stuff, I'm just wondering out loud and randomly connecting dots that may or may not exist based on publicly available information. YMMV).
Apple has updated their line of iPods to have colour screens (no more monochrome Chicago font) and added podcasting support to iTunes, but where is this going?
What makes this interesting is that there is currently little room left for Apple to upgrade the iPods the way they have been in the past: simply adding bigger hard drives isn't useful since most people just don't have 80 gigabyte music collections. I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of iPods sold are either minis (4 or 6 gigabytes) or the 20 gigabyte models. Without adding larger capacity drives to the iPod, the price will have to drop over time, and that seems like a bad trend for Apple given how much of their current revenues derive from the iPod.
When the iPod Photo was released, I went to the local Apple store here in San Francisco to look at the screen. It was very clear and bright, about the same size as the regular iPod screen. Still, looking at photos on it was like looking at photos on a digital camera's LCD screen: too small to really get much out of it. Can you imagine looking at Daily Dose Of Imagery on something that small? All the beauty would be compressed out of the picture.
So, now we have an all colour iPod line up and Apple needing to find ways to make us want larger capacity iPods. My guess is that it's only a matter of time before Apple adds a digital camera to the iPod. Apple made one of the first digital cameras, they have a large investment in the iPhoto software and "syncing to iPod" software, and camera costs have come down to the point that they are included in many cell phones with ever increasing quality. Not only can you carry around all your music and photos, but now you can take photos with the world's coolest and simplest digital camera!
But photos and music aren't the only the things that consume disk space. Video is easily the largest capacity muncher. Apple already has QuickTime technology installed on a huge number of Windows and Macintosh machines (ever wonder why QuickTime is non-optional when you install iTunes?). They have the iSight video camera, which is already quite small but I imagine that they could miniturize even further. Mac users get iMovie for free for post-processing, and I imagine that Windows Movie Maker could hook into that. My guess is that a video camera will eventually be added to the iPod.
So, where are we now? You carry around your iPod, listen to all your music, take photos with ease and record lots and lots of video of your life, syncing it all to your ever increasingly spacious desktop hard drive. There could even be an iPod slim model for those who don't need the video, but I suspect that video will eventually be incorporated into the iPod the same way that colour screens are now, for reasons I'll get to shortly.
Apple also recently added support for Podcasting into iTunes. Even though Apple didn't invent the term "Podcast", they must love how popular it has become: further entrenchment of the word "pod" into popular culture. I wonder if Microsoft will try to shift the name to "Windows Media Cast", and if "Plays for sure" includes playing them. Apple would do well to use the ".pod" file extension to name Podcast files and further piss off the Windows Media crowd.
What is missing from the iTunes support for Podcasts is, you know, actually MAKING podcasts. Apple recommends using GarageBand for podcast creation, which is kind of like recommending that people use a Lear jet to commute to work. Why didn't they add simple recording and processing to iTunes, since they already have loads of audio recording technology? My guess is that they'll add podcast creation directly to the iPod itself. A small amount of software and a microphone, and voila!
It will be interesting to see which gets added to the iPod first: audio or video recording, or if it'll be one integrated leap forward.
So great, you've got a mobile recording station, complete with video, photos and voice, but an audience of one. Chances are that if you're using any of these new features, it's so that you can share it with others. How are you going to do that? Simply by copying to your friend's iPod using the built in Wi-Fi and Bonjour, (aka: Rendezvous) like a peer-to-peer SneakerNet, or by syncing to the new Apple set top box connected to your TV. The Mac Mini is a prototype, a test for the real invasion of the living room. Future models will be true media centers: not only can they record TV, play DVDs and music, these minis will also sync with your iPod (via Wi-Fi and Bonjour) and play back all the stuff you've recorded during the day's walkabout. More than that, the Apple set top will also sync with your friend's or parent's set top automatically so that you can publish your content to a trusted set of subscribers. It'll be peer-to-peer video broadcasting, reality TV that stars the people you really care about. Today: 400 TV channels. Tomorrow: 6 billion.
I predict a whole generation of companies with the words "pod", "cast", and "sync" in them, in the same way that "wave" and "tech" were abused during the bubble. This revolution WILL be televised (and fully searchable).
You heard it here first.
Wow, I think you could take Cringley's job. You even got off on a crazy tangent with the Mac Mini there at the end. Nice job.
Over all though I think you are on the right track. Turning the Ipod into a digital ‘capture’ device as well as a playback device makes sense. The funny thing is that if they keep integrating capabilities it could end up like a Pocket PC eventually! (I’m still looking for my uber convergence device.)
I agree that adding camera support would make sense. The screen is too small to really view pictures or video, but just fine for capture. As for whether they would do pictures or Video first, you pretty much get the video for free once you add the camera. All my recent digicams do video and they are only really limited by storage space – something the Ipod has in spades. As for audio, might as well throw it in at the same time. This kills two birds, you get to record auto tracks for your pod casts, plus you get to record video with sound. As for getting this stuff published, I don’t expect wifi or anything fancy. You just dock your Ipod and your casts get copied off and posted.
I think there is the whole cell phone space to consider, too. People don't leave home without their phones, but my bet is that they aren't going to carry more than one device. I wonder if the iPod will add cell phone capabilities?
Phones (with cameras) are just too convenient. Eventually, they'll have the storage to compete with the iPod.
Honestly I thought the phone integration the least likely just because I thought Apple wouldn't be very willing to work with cell phone carriers and their money grubbing price plans.
Guess I was wrong
I would think that ring-tone producers would be dissapointed to. You could just set up a different song for each person in your phone book.
Is it iPaul or iProphet?
my bad
Apple to become a wireless carrier?
A very interesting article from Ars...
I agree with this article. Buying processors for the Ipod and the Mac from the same supplier will get them a big discount. I think that this also helps explain the decision to go with Intel over AMD.
I don't doubt that the Ipod will become a video device at some level. I'm just not sure what the initial content will be for such a device. The thing about portable video players though is that I think I would find them most useful when combined with TIVO functionality. Apple 'currently' doesn't have this functionality. Now that doesn't mean that they have to create a MPC clone however. What they need to do is build an Apple Video Store that has parterships with Movie AND Television studios. Just make popular TV available for download 'rental' at a reasonable price.
I wonder how this will affect the AMD v Intel lawsuit. It fits in with exactly the type of "sweet deals" Intel gives out to companies. What a twist if Intel was prevented from doing this type of thing in two years, right when Apple switches over. LOL.
Why did Apple dump the 30GB iPod? I thought the cool thing about it was that it used a newer, single platter drive, while the 40 used 2 platters. So now they just have 20 and 60 gb? Why not 30 and 60? Did they just want to keep the price points at 299 and 399, but didn't want to put the 30 at 299? Somebody bring some competition PLEASE.
In that kind of market, too many choices is a bad thing. They already have the shuffle, the mini, the standard and the U2 edition. I think reducing the SKU's is the right thing to do. Plus it forces the 30g / 40g consumers to buy the more expensive model.
Well there is competition, not that could name them. I'm guessing that the 20GB drive is the sweet spot, according to their research. I can't imagine most people needing more (for audio).
Two Ipod features in the spirit of this post that would make the photo experience complete:
1. An SD flash slot so you could suck pictures straight out of your digital camera.
2. USB host capability with built in drivers for the most popular HP and Epson printers - so you could print directly from your Ipod.
SD and USB are so old-new economy!
Wi-Fi and Zeroconf.
They have a sd/usb host thing for another $30 or so that will store pictures from a camera. On the sizes, my point was: what type of company drops the newer 30GB to the old school 20GB! It can only be to force those users up a notch to 60 because not enough people were buying that one. I actually felt 30gb was a good option, especially since it's the same thickness as the 20. Apple somehow convinces people that Moore's law doesn't exist, and that even several years later, you should pay more for a bigger HDD.
Here is a (long) article about Apple, iTunes 4.9 and podcasting. Very interesting.
In a lot of ways, it seems like Apple squashes more independent developers than Microsoft does. That podcasting thing in iTunes is cool for market validation, but it seems like seperate tools (with bittorrent integration for example) would be better at downloading files and placing them in an iTunes folder.
BTW - I seriously have to install iTunes, and have iTunesHelper.exe and iPodService.exe running all the time in the background just to play a quicktime movie in the browser??? Apple! *Shakes fist*
Yeah, I was annoyed about that too. Serves me right for running taskmgr.exe all the time... like I need something more to be annoyed about.
However, I no longer care about QuickTime's idiocy. The streaming now seems to work, which I suspect has more to do with the fact that the general internet infrastructure is now better than say, Apple's code quality (for example: in iTunes, click and hold the mouse button on the scroll bar... you don't have to move it, just click and hold. Then watch your CPU monitor. Fun!).
My new nemesis is Windows Media Player. This is thing is a turd (minus the video codec). When I try to drag the WMP window from one monitor to the other while a video is playing, the window just goes black and app goes unresponsive. What?! Can't the WMP devs afford to test on dual monitors? (Note: this works with QuickTime on Windows).
There is a way to get quick time installed minus Itunes appartently, some sort of stand alone installer, but you have to dig for it. Google around a bit and you'll find it.
As for Media player. I've had it work anywhere from perfect to as you described depending on the machine etc. I suspect it has a lot to do with your video card / drivers. I've even had it play with half video on one screen and half on the other, but that was a couple of years ago. At work I can move it from one monitor to the other and the only hassle it only goes black for a second or so.
And the fun never stops with Crackly. He even manages to work in MicroVision.
Crazy. I still really like Microvision, but like flying cars, I'm starting to doubt I'll ever have retinal displays and good VR headsets in my life time. Seriously though Apple won't even do a wireless Ipod and that technology is totally mature, there is no way we are going to see a retinal display videoPod in the next year.
Cringely is an idiot. You can download Apple QuickTime without iTunes. It's not easy to find on their site, but it is there.
Here comes the video.
I suppose for music videos it would be ok and maybe talking head podcasts, but the screen is too small for a movie.
Apple launches mobile iTunes phone. The media event is tomorrow, but I want to see how much music you can get on it.
My guess is that it will hold the typical amount of legal music the average Ipod user owns. That should translate to around 64Mb.
Okay, the phone is whatever, but the black iPod nano is very sweet! Where's the wifi?
So the nano replaces the ipod mini then? I hope they are not using the hitachi micro drive for storage - my new one has started making odd noises already.
The nano is flash based, so longer battery and less moving parts.
Are you sure about that? 5G flash cards are over 200.00 to us joesumers. Also nice name, 'nano', creative already has an MP3 player with that name, the: Creative Zen Nano Plus.
Check it out here. It says "flash drive" in the tech specs, but does that mean hard drive, or regular flash card?
I think that the "Nano" in the Creative name refers to its market share.
Get on the main article dudes. Creative Nano - ouchie.
It begins.
Way to ressurrect a nearly year old post. I like how the VC that funded the project describes how it will be difficult to make money doing it. LOL. Why are they creating their own NPR? Won't the radio stations just buy cheap podcasting software and start offering shows that way? NPR already has a whole set of shows you can subscribe through via iTunes. "We'll have to re-invent radio stations"